Iminyaka engama-45 Yezingqungquthela Zesimo Sezulu  

Kusukela kuNgqungquthela Yomhlaba Yesimo Sezulu yokuqala ngo-1979 kuya ku-COP29 ngo-2024, uhambo lweZinkomfa Zesimo Sezulu lube umthombo wethemba. Nakuba izingqungquthela zibe yimpumelelo ekuhlanganiseni isintu sonke ndawonye minyaka yonke ngesizathu esifanayo sokunciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kanye nokubhekana nezinselelo ezihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, impumelelo yakhona kuze kube manje ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwezinto ezikhishwayo, ezezimali zesimo sezulu kanye nokunciphisa kunokuningi okufisayo. . Esimeni samanje, ukuhlangabezana nempokophelo yokunciphisa ukufudumala ku-1.5-degree ekupheleni kwekhulunyaka njengoba kushiwo ku-Paris Agreement kubonakala kuncane kakhulu uma kubhekwa ukungabaza okuthile kwezomnotho eziningi ezisathuthuka kanye nezinhlangano ezikhiqiza uphethiloli. Ezezimali zesimo sezulu bekugxilwe kakhulu ku-COP29 esanda kuphothulwa e-Baku. Ingase inyuse uxhaso ngokuphindwe kathathu isuka ku-$100 billion ngonyaka iye ku-$300 billion ngonyaka ngo-2035, kodwa lokhu kuncane kakhulu kunesidingo esilinganiselwe sezezimali sokuhlangabezana nezinselele zesimo sezulu. Kuvunyelwene ngeseshini ye-Baku "ukuvikela imizamo yabo bonke abadlali ukuze basebenzisane ukukhuphula imali emazweni asathuthuka, kusukela emithonjeni yomphakathi kanye nezizimele kuye ku-$ 1.3 trillion ngonyaka ngo-2035", nokho izimali zesimo sezulu zihlala ziyiphuzu eliqinile phakathi kweNyakatho. naseNingizimu. Impumelelo yokunciphisa ukungcola kanye nokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoncika kakhulu ekutheni ingabe isikhwama samadola ayizigidigidi siyatholakala yini ukuze sisekele ama-Non-Annex I Parties (okungukuthi, amazwe asathuthuka).  

I-United Nations Climate Change Conference umcimbi waminyaka yonke. Ingqungquthela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu yalo nyaka. ibe 29^th iseshini ye-Conference of Parties (COP) ye-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) yabanjwa kusukela mhla ziyi-11 kuLwezi 2024 kuya zingama-24 kuLwezi 2024 e-Baku, e-Azerbaijan.  

I-First World Climate Conference (WCC) yabanjwa ngoFebhuwari 1979 e-Geneva ngaphansi kwe-World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Kwakuwumbuthano wesayensi wochwepheshe abaqaphela ukuthi isimo sezulu somhlaba wonke siye sashintsha phakathi neminyaka futhi bahlola ukuthi sisho ukuthini esintwini. Yanxusa iZizwe Ezihlangene eSimemezelweni sazo ukuba zithuthukise ulwazi lwesimo sezulu futhi zivimbele noma yiziphi izinguquko ezimbi ezenziwe umuntu zesimo sezulu. Phakathi kokunye, i-WCC yokuqala yaholela ekusungulweni kwethimba lochwepheshe mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.  

I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) yasungulwa ngoLwezi 1988 yi-World Meteorological Organization (WMO) kanye ne-United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ukuze ihlole isayensi ehlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Yacelwa ukuthi ihlole isimo solwazi olukhona mayelana nesimo sezulu kanye nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu; imithelela yemvelo, ezomnotho, kanye nenhlalo yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu; kanye namasu okuphendula okungenzeka. Embikweni wayo wokuqala wokuhlola owakhishwa ngoNovemba 1990, i-IPCC yaphawula ukuthi amagesi abamba ukushisa akhule kakhulu emkhathini ngenxa yezenzo zabantu yingakho kwaba yiNgqungquthela Yomhlaba Yesimo Sezulu Yezwe yesibili kanye nekhwelo lesivumelwano somhlaba wonke mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.  

I-World Climate Conference yesibili (WCC) yabanjwa ngo-Okthoba-November 1990 e-Geneva. Ochwepheshe bagqamise ubungozi bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu nokho baphoxekile ngokungabi bikho kwezinga eliphezulu lokuzinikela kuMinisterial Declaration. Noma kunjalo, yenze inqubekelaphambili ngesivumelwano somhlaba esihlongozwayo.  

Mhla ziyi-11 kuZibandlela 1990, i-UN General Assembly yasungula Ikomidi Lezingxoxo Zohulumeni (INC) leNgqungquthela Yohlaka Lokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu futhi izingxoxo zaqala. Ngo-May 1992, i- I-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) yamukelwa eNdlunkulu ye-UN. NgoJuni 1992, i-UNFCCC yavulelwa ukusayinwa eNgqungqutheleni Yomhlaba eRio. Mhla zingama-21 kuNdasa 1994, i-UNFCCC yaqala ukusebenza, njengesivumelwano samazwe ngamazwe sokunqanda ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa kanye nokuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Lokhu kusekelwe kumgomo wokuzibophezela okufanayo kodwa okuhlukene kanye namandla afanele (CBDR-RC) okungukuthi, amazwe ngamanye anamakhono ahlukene kanye nezibopho ezihlukene kanye nezibopho ezihlukene ekubhekaneni nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.  

I-UNFCCC iyisivumelwano esiyisisekelo esihlinzeka ngesisekelo sezingxoxo nezivumelwano ezisekelwe ezimweni zezwe. Amazwe ayi-197 asayine futhi asamukela lesi sivumelwano; ngalinye laziwa ngokuthi 'Iqembu' kumhlangano wohlaka. Amazwe ahlukaniswe aba ngamaqembu amathathu ngokusekelwe ekuzibophezeleni okuhlukene - Amaqembu e-Annex I (amazwe asezimboni ze-OECD kanye ne-Economies in transition in Europe), Amaqembu e-Annex II (amazwe e-OECD eSijobelelo I), kanye Namaqembu Angewona Isijobelelo I (amazwe asathuthuka) . Amaqembu eSijobelelo II ahlinzeka ngezinsiza zezimali kanye nokweseka Izinhlaka Ezingezona Isijobelelo I (okungukuthi, amazwe asathuthuka) ukuze zenze imisebenzi yokunciphisa ukungcola.  

Amazwe (noma Amaqembu e-UNFCCC) ahlangana minyaka yonke e Ingqungquthela Yamaqembu (COP) ukuxoxisana ngezimpendulo zamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. I-“Conferences of Parties (COP)” ebanjwa minyaka yonke ibuye idume ngokuthi “Izinkomfa Ze-United Nations Zokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu”.  

Ingqungquthela yokuqala Yamaqembu (i-COP 1) yaba seBerlin ngo-Ephreli 1995 lapho kwaqashelwa khona ukuthi izibopho zamaQembu Esivumelwaneni 'zazingenele' ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezinjongo, yingakho kwavunyelwana isivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya ngesikhathi se-COP3. eKyoto ngomhla ziyi-11 kuZibandlela 1997. Ibizwa kakhulu I-Kyoto Protocol, lesi kwakuyisivumelwano sokuqala somhlaba sokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa esihloselwe ukuvimbela ukuphazamiseka okuyingozi kwe-anthropogenic ohlelweni lwesimo sezulu. Lokhu kwabophezela amazwe athuthukile ukuba ehlise intuthu. Ukuzibophezela kwayo kokuqala kwaphela ngo-2012. Isikhathi sesibili sokuzibophezela kwavunyelwana ngaso ngesikhathi se-COP18 ngo-2012 e-Doha esanweba isivumelwano safinyelela ku-2020.  

I-Paris Agreement mhlawumbe yisinqumo esiphelele kuze kube manje somphakathi womhlaba 195 sokulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ukuze sibe nekusasa elinekhabhoni ephansi, eliqinile nelizinzile. Yamukelwa mhla ziyi-12 kuZibandlela wezi-2015 ngesikhathi seseshini ye-COP 21 enhlokodolobha yaseFrance. Lokhu kuveze inkambo ebanzi ngale kokwehliswa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya esihlanganisa ukunqanda ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ukuzivumelanisa nezimo, kanye nezimali zesimo sezulu.  

Ithebula: Isivumelwano Paris 

Kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2023, amazwe ayi-195 asayine Isivumelwano saseParis. I-USA yahoxa esivumelwaneni ngo-2020 kodwa yaphinde yajoyina ngo-2021.  

Ukubaluleka kwenhloso yeSivumelwano saseParis sokunciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke ku-1.5°C ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni ngo-2050 kwaqinisekiswa njengokubalulekile yi-IPCC ngo-Okthoba 2018 ukuze kunqandwe isomiso esivame kakhulu nesibi kakhulu, izikhukhula neziphepho kanye neminye imithelela emibi kakhulu yesimo sezulu. shintsha. 

Ukunciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke ku-1.5°C, ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kufanele kukhuphuke ngaphambi kuka-2025 futhi kunciphe ngo-2030. ukuhlolwa (yenqubekelaphambili ehlangene ekusetshenzisweni kwezinjongo zesimo sezulu ze-2015 Paris Agreement) eyethulwa ku-COP28 eyayise-Dubai ngo-2023 iveze ukuthi umhlaba awukho esimeni sokunciphisa izinga lokushisa libe ngu-1.5°C ekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka. Uguquko alusheshi ngokwanele ukuze kufinyelelwe ekuncishisweni kwesisi esingcolisa umoya ngamaphesenti angama-43 ngonyaka wezi-2030 okunganciphisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke ngaphakathi kwezifiso zamanje. Ngakho-ke, i-COP 28 icele ukuthi kube noguquko oluphelele olusuka kuphethiloli luye ku-zero ephumayo ngonyaka wezi-2050 ngokusebenzisa umthamo wamandla avuselelekayo aphindeka kathathu, ukuthuthukiswa kokusebenza kahle kwamandla ngokuphindwe kabili ngo-2030, ukwehla kwamandla amalahle anganqamuki, kuqedwe ukuxhaswa kukaphethiloli ongasebenzi kahle, nangokuthatha ezinye izinyathelo susa uguquko kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi ezinhlelweni zamandla, ngaleyo ndlela, uqalise ekuqaleni kokuphela kwezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi. inkathi yamafutha.   

I-COP28 yethule i-Global Climate Finance Framework yokuxhasa ngezimali umnotho omusha wesimo sezulu kuyilapho iqinisekisa ukuthi izimali zesimo sezulu ziyatholakala, ziyathengeka, futhi ziyafinyeleleka. Isimemezelo se-COP28 ku-Global Climate Finance Framework kufanele isondeze i-Global North kanye ne-Global South eduze nomfutho owenziwe imizamo ekhona.   

Izindikimba ezimbili ezimaphakathi ze-COP28, okungukuthi. ukuncishiswa kokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nezezimali zesimo sezulu kuzwakale kakhulu naku-COP29 esanda kuphothulwa.  

I-COP29 yayibanjelwe e-Baku, e-Azerbaijan kusukela mhla ziyi-11 kuNovemba 2024 futhi yayizophothulwa mhla zingama-22 kuLwezi 2024 nokho iseshini yanwetshwa cishe ngamahora angama-33 kuya kumhla zingama-24 kuLwezi 2024 ukuze kuvunyelwe isikhathi esengeziwe sabaxoxisanayo ukuze basize ekufinyeleleni esivumelwaneni. Ayikho inqubekelaphambili eyayingenziwa mayelana nomgomo "woshintsho oluphelele olusuka kumafutha emvelo luye ku-zero ephumayo ngo-2050 ukuze kukhawulwe ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke ku-1.5°C ekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka" (mhlawumbe ngenxa yokungqubuzana kwezithakazelo, njengoba i-Azerbaijan umkhiqizi omkhulu kawoyela ongahluziwe kanye negesi yemvelo).   

Noma kunjalo, kungase kufinyelelwe esivumelwaneni sempumelelo yezezimali emazweni asathuthuka, kusukela emgomweni wangaphambilini wamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyikhulu ngonyaka, kuya ku-$100 wezigidigidi ngonyaka ngo-300. ukuhlangabezana nezinselele zesimo sezulu. Kodwa-ke, kube nesivumelwano "sokuvikela imizamo yabo bonke abadlali ukuze basebenzisane ukuze kukhuliswe izimali emazweni asathuthuka, kusukela emithonjeni yomphakathi kanye nezizimele kuye ku-$ 2035 trillion ngonyaka ngo-1.3", nokho izimali zesimo sezulu zihlala ziyiphuzu eliqinile phakathi kweNyakatho. naseNingizimu. Impumelelo yokunciphisa ukungcola kanye nokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoncika kakhulu ekutheni ingabe isikhwama samadola ayizigidigidi siyatholakala yini ukuze sisekele ama-Non-Annex I Parties (okungukuthi, amazwe asathuthuka). 

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References:  

1. WMO 1979. Isimemezelo Sengqungquthela Yesimo Sezulu Yomhlaba. Itholakala ngo https://dgvn.de/fileadmin/user_upload/DOKUMENTE/WCC-3/Declaration_WCC1.pdf  

2. UNFCC. Umugqa wesikhathi. Itholakala ngo https://unfccc.int/timeline/  

3. UNFCC. Ayini Amaqembu & nabangewona Iqembu? Itholakala ngo https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-are-parties-non-party-stakeholders  

4. I-LSE. Iyini i-UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)? Itholakala ngo https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-the-un-framework-convention-on-climate-change-unfccc/  

5. UNFCC. I-Kyoto Protocol - Okuhlosiwe kwenkathi yokuqala yokuzibophezela. Itholakala ngo  https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-kyoto-protocol/what-is-the-kyoto-protocol/kyoto-protocol-targets-for-the-first-commitment-period

6. I-LSE. Siyini Isivumelwano SaseParis? Itholakala ngo https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/what-is-the-paris-agreement/  

7. I-COP29. Ukuphumelela ku-Baku kuletha u-$1.3tn "we-Baku Finance Goal". Kuthunyelwe ngomhla ka-24 Novemba 2024. Itholakala e- https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/breakthrough-in-baku-delivers-13tn-baku-finance-goal  

8. UKFCCC. Izindaba – Ingqungquthela Yesimo Sezulu ye-COP29 ye-UN Ivumelana Nezezimali Ezikathathu Emazweni Asathuthuka, Ukuvikela Izimpilo Nokuziphilisa. Kuthunyelwe ngomhla ka-24 Novemba 2024.Itholakala ku- https://unfccc.int/news/cop29-un-climate-conference-agrees-to-triple-finance-to-developing-countries-protecting-lives-and  

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