Kuyadida ukuthi kungani i-China ikhethe ukuphakamisa inqubomgomo eyi-zero-COVID futhi iqede ama-NPI aqinile, ebusika, ngaphambi nje kukaNcibijane WaseShayina, lapho i-BF.7 ethathelana kakhulu yayisivele isetshenziswa.
"I-WHO ikhathazeke kakhulu ngesimo esithuthukayo eChina, ”kusho uMqondisi-Jikelele we-WHO ngoLwesithathu (20th Disemba 2022) ekukhuphukeni okuphezulu kwamacala e-COVID ku China.
Ngenkathi umhlaba wonke ubuyela ngaphansi kwalolu bhubhane, i-China yayinezinga eliphansi lokutheleleka ngenxa yokwamukelwa okuqhubekayo kwenqubomgomo ye-zero-COVID ngokusetshenziswa okuqinile kokungenelela okungezona ezemithi (NPIs). Ukungenelela Okungezona Ezemithi noma izindlela zokunciphisa umphakathi zingamathuluzi ezempilo yomphakathi njengokuqhelelana ngokomzimba, ukuzehlukanisa, ukukhawulela usayizi wemibuthano, ukuvalwa kwezikole, ukusebenzela ekhaya, njll ezisiza ekuvimbeleni nasekulawuleni ukusabalala kwezifo emphakathini. Ama-NPI aqinile abeke imingcele eqinile phakathi kwabantu -nabantu-abantu okukhawulela ngokwanelisayo amazinga okudlulisela aleli gciwane futhi akwazi ukugcina inani lokufa liphansi kakhulu. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukusebenzisana okusondele ku-zero nakho kwakungasizi ekuthuthukisweni kwemvelo ukungafiki komzimba.
Kanye nama-NPI aqinile, i-China iphinde yagomela i-COVID-19 (isebenzisa i-Sinovac noma i-CoronaVac okuwumuthi wokugomela igciwane ongasebenzi wonke.) obone cishe abantu abangama-92% bethola okungenani umthamo owodwa. Isibalo sabantu abadala abaneminyaka engu-80+ (abasengozini kakhulu), nokho, belingagculisi kangako ku-77% (bathole okungenani umthamo owodwa), 66% (bathole umthamo wesibili), kanye nama-2% (bathole umthamo we-booster kanye ).
Uma umhlambi ungekho ukuzivikela komzimba abantu basala kuphela ekugomeni okusebenzayo okungenzeka ukuthi bekungasebenzi kahle kunoma yikuphi okusha okuhlukile kanye/noma, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukugonywa okudalwe umgomo kungenzeka ukuthi kunciphile. Lokhu kanye nokungagculisi komgomo wokugomela i-booster kwasho amazinga aphansi ekugomeni phakathi kwabantu baseChina.
Kungalesi sizinda, i-China yaphakamisa inqubomgomo eqinile ye-zero-COVID ngoDisemba 2022. Imibhikisho edumile kungenzeka ukuthi yiyona ebangele ukushintshwa kusuka “ku-dynamic zero tolerance” (DZT) kuya “ku-notoll no inventions” (TNI).
Ukwehliswa kwemikhawulo, nokho, kubangele ukwanda okukhulu ezimweni. Imibiko engaqinisekisiwe evela eChina ikhombisa inani elikhulu kakhulu labantu abashonile kanye nokugcwala kwezibhedlela nezikhungo zokunakekela imingcwabo kunalokho okubikwe ngokusemthethweni. Isibalo sisonke emhlabeni wonke seqe isigamu sesigidi sesilinganiso sesilinganiso sansuku zonke seviki eliphela mhla ziyi-19 kuZibandlela, 2022. Abanye bacabanga ukuthi ukuqhuma kwamanje kungase kube okokuqala kwamagagasi amathathu asebusika, axhunyaniswe nohambo oluningi ngaphambi nangemuva kwemigubho yoNyaka Omusha waseShayina ngomhla ka-22. Januwari 2023 (iphethini ekhumbuza isigaba sokuqala se-COVID-19 ubhubhane kubonwe ngo-2019-2020).
Kubonakala sengathi, BF.7, i-omicron subvariant ehlotshaniswa nokwanda kwamacala e-COVID-19 e-China ithathelwana kakhulu. Inombolo esebenzayo yokukhiqiza yalesi sihlukaniso e-Beijing phakathi noNovemba-Disemba 2022 ilinganiselwa ukuthi iphezulu njengo-3.421.
Isimo se-COVID-19 saseChina esikhathini esizayo esiseduze sibonakala siyinselele. Ngokwemodeli esuselwe kudatha yakamuva yobhubhane lweMacau, Hong Kong, kanye neSingapore, ukufa kwabantu abayizigidi eziyi-1.49 kubikezelwa eChina zingakapheli izinsuku eziyi-180. Uma ukungenelela okuxekethile okungezona ezemithi (NPIs) kwamukelwa ngemva kokugqashuka kokuqala, inani lokufa lingehliswa ngo-36.91% phakathi kwezinsuku ezingu-360 Lokhu kubizwa ngokuthi “i-flatten-the-curve” (FTC) indlela. Ukugonywa okuphelele nokusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa ezilwa ne-COVID kunganciphisa isibalo sokufa kwabantu asebekhulile (abaneminyaka engama-60 nangaphezulu) ukuya ezigidini ezingu-0.40 (kusuka ezigidini ezilinganiselwa ku-0.81)2.
Esinye iphrojekthi yocwaningo lokumodela isimo esibi kakhulu - phakathi kuka-268,300 kuya ku-398,700, kanye nenani eliphakeme lamacala abucayi phakathi kuka-3.2 kuya ku-6.4 kubantu abangu-10,000 ngaphambi kokuba igagasi lihlehle ngoFebhuwari 2023. kunganciphisa ukufa ngama-8% (uma kuqhathaniswa nokungenelela okungekho nhlobo). Ukumbozwa komthamo we-booster osheshayo kanye nama-NPI aqinile angasiza ukuthuthukisa isimo3.
Kuyadida ukuthi kungani i-China yakhetha ukuphakamisa inqubomgomo engu-zero-COVID futhi isuse ama-NPI aqinile, ebusika, ngaphambi nje kukaNcibijane WaseShayina, lapho i-BF.7 ethathelana kakhulu yayisivele isetshenziswa.
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References:
- Leung K., et al., 2022. Ukulinganisa amandla okudlulisela e-Omicron e-Beijing, Novemba kuya kuDisemba 2022. Preprint medRxiv. Kuthunyelwe Disemba 16, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.15.22283522
- I-Sun J., Li Y., Shao N., kanye no-Liu M., 2022. Kungenzeka yini ukuthambisa ijika ngemva kokugqashuka kokuqala kwe-Covid-19? Ukuhlaziywa kwemodeli eqhutshwa yidatha yobhubhane lwe-Omicron eChina. Ukuphrinta ngaphambili medRxiv . Kuthunyelwe Disemba 22, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.21.22283786
- I-Song F., kanye ne-Bachmann MO, 2022. Ukumodela kokuqubuka kwezinhlobonhlobo ze-SARS-CoV-2 Omicron ngemva kokunciphisa isu le-Dynamic Zero-COVID ezweni laseChina. Ukuphrinta ngaphambili medRxiv. Kuthunyelwe Disemba 22, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.22.22283841
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